L’Ue è in pieno stallo. Più che alle riforme istituzionali, si pensa alle poltrone

In questo periodo di stallo a livello diplomatico, in cui si susseguono incontri su incontri senza risultati, varrebbe la pena riflettere su come, nonostante tutto, gli interessi nazionali si articolino in funzione delle poltrone istituzionali e plasmano il futuro dell’Europa.

Nel corso della due giorni di summit europeo della settimana scorsa, Paolo Gentiloni ha rilasciato la sua prima intervista televisiva da ex primo ministro, ai microfoni di Otto e Mezzo (La7). Incalzato sulla questione migratoria, e sull’operato del primo ministro Giuseppe Conte a Bruxelles, Gentiloni ha insistito, a più riprese, che, oggigiorno, nell’Ue, la questione centrale rimane quella del governo “economico”.

L’osservazione di Gentiloni è condivisibile. Peccato, però, che dal meeting sia uscito un nulla di fatto. Gli analisti hanno ribadito che, rispetto ai temi sollevati da alcuni governi dell’Ue nel corso degli ultimi anni – budget per investimenti, assicurazione di disoccupazione europea, riforma del Meccanismo europeo di stabilità (Mes) e Unione bancaria – si sono fatti pochi passi in avanti.

Un Consiglio deludente

Le conclusioni del Consiglio auspicano che, entro la fine del 2018, le istituzioni con funzione co-legislativa, adottino il pacchetto sulla riforma del settore bancario, in linea con la roadmap decisa nel 2016.

Si invita inoltre a iniziare il “lavoro politico” in merito a questo capitolo dell’integrazione, sottolineando, in particolare, la necessità di raggiungere un accordo sull’Edis (lo schema di assicurazione comune per i depositi bancari).

La portata del documento è nell’ordine dei “vorrei” e, quindi, lontana dalle attese alimentate a più riprese da alcuni leader europei, in primisMacron, e in occasione degli incontri precedenti (summit di Primavera).

Lo sfasamento fra l’asse franco-tedesco e l’Ue a 27

Le conclusioni, poi, non sono in linea con la bozza di accordo firmata dalla cancelliera tedesca e dal presidente francese a Meseberg, il 19 giugno scorso. In occasione di quest’ultimo incontro bilaterale, Merkel e Macron avevano trovato un’intesa volta a rilanciare alcuni progetti di integrazione come quello di un “budget comune per gli investimenti” (nonostante ciò, una maggioranza di analisti ha criticato l’accordo di Meseberg perché non all’altezza delle sfide a cui va incontro l’Europa).

Tolto il tema migratorio, lo sfasamento fra gli “accordi franco-tedeschi” e ciò che, regolarmente, esce dai “tavoli europei a 27” in materia istituzionale ed economica è il segno più evidente di un’Unione sempre meno coesa. E così la definizione dell’assetto dell’Unione del futuro sta slittando di semestre in semestre.

In questo intreccio di meeting e posticipazioni di decisioni e roadmap strategiche, esiste però una data ultima che era stata fissata, in tempi non sospetti, dalla Commissione europea. Si tratta del 9 maggio del 2019, giornata in cui, a Sibiu, in Romania i leader dei Paesi Ue sarebbero (teoricamente) chiamati a mettere un punto finale alle riflessioni sull’assetto istituzionale e di governo economico dell’Europa.

La variabile rinnovo del Parlamento europeo

Ad oggi, visti i precedenti, non si può che guardare con scetticismo alla capacità dei governi di arrivare a un compromesso solido in merito ai molti cantieri aperti. Ma c’è di più.

La data del 9 maggio cade nel mezzo della campagna elettorale per il rinnovo del Parlamento europeo. C’è da scommettere che il periodo sarà politicamente “caldo”. Per certi versi, si rischia quindi di creare un cortocircuito istituzionale rilevante: i leader nazionali dovranno trovare un accordo istituzionale sul futuro dell’Europa due settimane prima che i cittadini europei stessi votino per il rinnovo del Parlamento, sulla base di visioni sull’Europa, a rigor di logica, in competizione fra di loro.

Allo stesso tempo, è vero che, alla luce dei Trattati europei, sono i governi nazionali a dare l’indirizzo strategico all’Unione. Questi ultimi rappresentano allo stesso modo diverse sovranità popolari. Ma arrivare a ridosso della competizione rischia di esasperare il nodo democratico interno alle dinamiche Ue: sul futuro dell’Ue decidono i capi di governo o i cittadini stessi?

L’integrazione a poltrone

Al netto di tutto ciò, è importante sottolineare come, all’ombra dei meeting e delle elezioni esista poi un binario parallelo di evoluzione delle istituzioni e, conseguentemente, del processo di integrazione. Ed è quello legato alle nomine dei funzionari di alto rango in seno alle autorità indipendenti dell’Ue.

Il caso più emblematico è rappresentato dalla scelta del prossimo presidente della Banca centrale europea, visto che l’Unione si basa ancora e fondamentalmente sulla tenuta dell’Euro. Per molti esperti, di fatto, è la Bce a fare il bello e brutto tempo in Europa (basti pensare al famoso “whatever it takes” che “salvò” la moneta unica nel 2012).

Ma esistono anche altre posizioni impostanti che dovranno essere delineate nei prossimi mesi. Una di queste è quella legata alla posizione di guida della Vigilanza della Banca centrale europea, attualmente occupata da Daniele Nouy – si tratta della figura istituzionale che coordina il monitoraggio di 120 banche europee.

Secondo Handelsblatt, l’Italia starebbe cercando in tutti i modi di occupare la posizione per assicurarsi che le riforme in materia bancaria (le uniche che procedono in qualche modo) non vadano contro i propri interessi nazionali. Del resto, anche Berlino e Parigi non stanno a guardare: Merkel punterebbe a un alleato solido alla testa della Commissione (nel caso dovesse saltare Weidmann alla Bce), mentre Macron vorrebbe un francese proprio a Francoforte.

In questo periodo di stallo a livello diplomatico, in cui si susseguono incontri su incontri senza risultati, varrebbe la pena riflettere su come, nonostante tutto, gli interessi nazionali si articolino in funzione delle poltrone istituzionali e plasmano il futuro dell’Europa.

(ilSalto, 06.07.2018)

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