Compagno “mainstream”, sono un elettore italiano, populista e di sinistra

Rispetto al “compagno mainstream”, il “populista tipo” di sinistra nostrano ha una maggiore probabilità di aver sperimentato sulla propria pelle un periodo di disoccupazione nel corso dell’ultimo anno. In linea generale poi, è meno interessato alla politica e valuta in maniera più negativa lo stato dell’economia italiana. Infine, sotto ai trent’anni, nel Belpaese, sembrebbe essere in buona compagnia: il 20% degli elettori nella fascia 18-29 è definibile come un populista di sinistra (maggioranza relativa).

Rispetto al “compagno mainstream”, il “populista tipo” di sinistra nostrano ha una maggiore probabilità di aver sperimentato sulla propria pelle un periodo di disoccupazione nel corso dell’ultimo anno. In linea generale poi, è meno interessato alla politica e valuta in maniera più negativa lo stato dell’economia italiana. Infine, sotto ai trent’anni, nel Belpaese, sembrebbe essere in buona compagnia: il 20% degli elettori nella fascia 18-29 è definibile come un populista di sinistra (maggioranza relativa).

Sono alcuni dati che emergono dallo studio “In Western Europe, Populist Parties Tap Anti-Establishment Frustration but Have Little Appeal Across Ideological Divide”, del PEW Research Center e curato da Katie Simmons, Laura Silver, Courtney Johnson, Kyle Taylor and Richard Wike.

Come indica il titolo dell’analisi, gli autori scrivono che, in Europa, le preferenze ideologiche degli elettorati sono ancora più rilevanti dei tratti populisti (o meno) degli stessi, nell’influenzare i risultati elettorali e le posizioni su determinate politiche economiche e sociali.

Nonostante ciò, la ricerca permette di dettagliare come, un giovane populista italiano qualsiasi – chiamiamolo Antonio per facilitare la descrizione – si distingua, o meno, dal compagno tradizionale, in merito a una serie di questioni.

L’identikit del populista di sinistra

Per esempio, Antonio è più o meno allineato con i compagni di partito per quanto riguarda il supporto a un’affermazione tipo, quale: “è reponsabilità del governo di garantire uno standard di vita decente per tutti i cittadini”. In realtà, a spaccare il capello in quattro, la probabilità che Antonio sia d’accordo è del 77%, rispetto al 74% dei suoi alter-ego.

“Differenze” dello stesso ordine di grandezza si riscontrano sia in merito all’affermazione “a gay e lesbiche dovrebbero essere riconosciuto il diritto di adottare bambini”, sia con riferimento alle tematiche migratorie. Riguardo a quest’ultimo punto, insieme ai militanti “pù istituzionali”, Antonio si contraddistingue per posizioni piuttosto solidali: solo nel 22% dei casi afferma che “gli immigrati sono un peso per la nostra economia perché ci riubano il lavoro” (mainstream=18%); allo stesso tempo, un populista di sinistra su tre, ritiene che la presenza degli stranieri aumenti il rischio di attentati terroristici (mainstream=30%); infine, nel 63% dei casi Antonio pensa che, per il bene della società, sia necessario che i nuovi arrivati debbano adattarsi agli usi e costumi tradizionali (mainstream=61%).

Dove sono le differenze allora? In primo luogo, Antonio tende a difendere meno l’autonomia della donna nella vita di coppia. Se il 60% dei compagni tradizionali è d’accordo sul fatto che, per la vita di famiglia, è meglio che le donne abbiano un impiego a tempo pieno, Antonio concorederebbe nel 51% dei casi. Inoltre, Antonio, è, in media, meno disposto a regolamentare le aziende private nell’economia: la proporzione, in questo caso, è di 61% a 76%.

Le divergenze diventano piuttosto importanti quando si parla di “fiducia nel sistema istituzionale”. Sebbene, in generale, nel Belpaese, il livello sia piuttosto basso, solo l’8% delle volte, Antonio, nutre fiducia nel Parlamento nazionale (i compagni tradizionali si collocano al 20%).

E l’Europa? Solo metà dei populisti di sinistra del Belpaese ritengono che la partecipazione all’Ue sia stata benefica per l’economia italiana, a differenza del 67% dei colleghi mainstream. In maniera complementare, una maggioranza assoluta dei primi vorrebbe ritrasferire alcuni poteri comunitari al livello nazionale (a fronte di un 46% dei secondi).

Per chi vota Antonio? Di sicuro apprezza poco il Partito democratico: solo nel 39% dei casi lo vede di buon occhio. E, piuttosto, voterebbe Grillo (44%). Esattamente il contrario farebbero i colleghi più tradizionali: solo il 24% voterebbe il M5S, ben il 53% il PD.

Uno studio da prendere con le pinze

Ovviamente lo studio va preso con le pinze, ma, almeno in parte, fornisce dati interessanti sulla composizione degli elettorati nei diversi Paesi, nonché delle spaccature fra fronti populisti e non. Inoltre, uno dei meriti dell’analisi è di non relegare il populismo a una parte politica precisa, bensì di incorporare questa dimensione all’interno di preferenze politiche di sinistra, centro e destra.

Più nel dettaglio, la ricerca del PEW ha visto somministrare un sondaggio a 16.114 cittadini di sei Paesi dell’Europa occidentale, tra il 30 ottobre 2017 e il 30 dicembre 2017. L’obiettivo è stato quello di capire come l’incrocio tra posizionamento ideologico e tendenze populiste individuali modifichino e caratterizzino le preferenze in merito a politiche, istituzioni, partiti politici e valori in otto Paesi Ue (Danimarca, Svezia, Paesi Bassi, Francia, Germania, Spagna, Italia e Regno Unito)

Per determinare il collocamento politico degli intervistati, a ogni persona è stato chiesto di collocarsi autonomamente lungo lo spettro sinistra-centro-destra. Il carattere “populista” è stato invece intercettato attraverso due domande specifiche legate alle preferenze “anti-classe dirigente”:

  • Q26. Le persone comuni farebbero un lavoro migliore nel risolvere i problemi del Paese, rispetto agli eletti ufficiali / non farebbero …
  • Q27. La maggior parte degli eletti ufficiali si interessa a quello che pensano i cittadini / non si interessa …

La seguente tabella illustra la composizione precentuale degli elettorati secondo la metodologia appena descritta. Una trattazione giornalistica dello studio in inglese si puà leggere su Euractiv.

Sinistra populista Sinistra mainstream Centro populista Centro mainstream Destra populista Destra mainstream Non allineati
Danimarca

6

20 8 19 9 31 7

Francia

11 13 1 21 12 19

13

Germania

5 17 14 37 6 14 7

Italia

8 14 12 17 18 16

17

Paesi Bassi

5 19 7 23 12 30

5

Spagna

13 11 17 21 11 18

9

Svezia

2 20 4 25 4 37

8

Regno Unito 9 16 13 19 10 24

9

 

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