Dalla Brexit all’Italexit?

Soltanto il 16% di cittadini britannici, indipendentemente dal collocamento politico, pensa che un numero di immigrati tra i 100,000 e i 300,000 sia sostenibile per il Paese (si consideri che, tra il 2016 e il 2017, il numero di ingressi al netto delle partenze dallo UK, è stato pari a 273,000 unità). Allo stesso tempo, dati del maggio 2017, hanno indicato come solo una minoranza crede che le promesse fatte dal Primo ministro, Theresa May (ovvero, di diminuire a 100,000 il numero di immigrati per anno nel Paese) sia realistica (Figura 5).

Infine, la Figura 6 mostra le percentuali di supporto dei cittadini UK nei confronti dell’assegnazione dei permessi di ingresso (VISA), in funzione delle categorie professionali: dottori e infermiere – due dei comparti più a rischio a causa della Brexit – sono estremamente ben visti da una maggioranza della popolazione.
Questi dati dimostrano un comportamento che, in inglese, potrebbe essere definito con la locuzione “cherry-picking”, ovvero di discriminazione in funzione degli interessi specifici del sistema Paese in questione.

Brexit: rimorso e rischio “effetto domino”

I cittadini UK si sono pentiti della Brexit? Per capirlo, può essere innanzitutto interessante guardare all’opinione degli stessi cittadini britannici in merito alla possibilità di: ribaltare la Brexit, optare per un’uscita più leggera, oppure continuare lungo il percorso intrapreso nel 2016 (Figura 7, dati YouGov del settembre 2017). Se il 40% crede che si debba continuare sulla falsa riga di quanto stabilito dopo il referendum, un 32% ritiene che sia meglio abbandonare l’idea della Brexit (14%), oppure organizzare un secondo referendum (18%).
È importante notare che la somma di coloro che preferirebbero ribaltare la Brexit o organizzare un secondo referendum è comunque inferiore alla percentuale ottenuta dal fronte Remain il giorno del referendum (48%). Questo dato dimostra come, anche agli occhi di chi può essere definito europeista, il risultato elettorale vada rispettato.

Cosa si può dire invece in merito alla prospettiva dei cittadini degli altri Paesi europei? Uno sguardo ai dati del PEW Research Center’s Global Attitudes Survey – i quali fanno riferimento a una selezione di dieci Paesi membri dell’Ue – rivelano uno scenario interessante. La Brexit viene interpretata come qualcosa di “negativo” per l’Ue (Figura 8) da oltre il 70% degli intervistati.
Va notato che, in Francia e Italia, si riscontrano le percentuali più alte di voci critiche che definiscono lo scenario come “negativo” per l’Unione – rispettivamente il 36% dei francesi e il 26% degli italiani. Se, invece, si mettono al centro le potenziali conseguenze della Brexit per il Regno Unito stesso, in media, le percentuali di coloro che ritengono la Brexit “negativa” supera il 50% (Figura 9). Eppure ci sono forti differenze nazionali e le proporzioni appaiono sicuramente più equilibrate. Insomma, si può dire che, in termini relativi, l’uscita del Regno Unito dall’Ue sia considerata un evento negativo più per l’Unione che non per lo UK.

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