Dalla Brexit all’Italexit?

Che ruolo ha giocato la questione migratoria, nella definizione dei risultati del referendum sulla Brexit? Tramite un’analisi fattoriale applicata ai dati ottenuti da un sondaggio longitudinale IPSOS-Mori, condotto tra il 2015 e il 2017, è stato possibile individuare la correlazione fra, da un lato, differenti gruppi di variabili e, dall’altro, l’esito del voto referendario del 23 giugno 2016 nel Regno Unito. La stessa base dati permette di indagare sia le opinioni dei cittadini britannici sul tema dell’immigrazione, sia il rischio di un effetto domino della Brexit su altre realtà nazionali.

Come spiegare la Brexit? Leavers Vs Remainers

I risultati indicano che le variabili che sono state aggregate all’interno di un fattore “anti-immigrazione / pro-nativi” sono quelle che spiegano meglio il risultato (34%) finale del referendum (Figura 1). Seguono fattori quali “sfiducia negli esperti” (23%) e “opposizione alla political correctness” (12%). In altre parole, i numeri rivelano che fattori “culturali” e “valoriali” hanno giocato un ruolo più rilevante nella determinazione del voto, rispetto alle mere “condizioni economiche” dei votanti.

Allo stesso modo, è possibile osservare quali siano state le principali preoccupazioni degli elettori dei due fronti, dei cosìddetti “Leavers” e “Remainers” (Figura 2). L’impatto potenziale della Brexit sugli scenari economici del Regno Unito è il fattore più indicato da chi ha votato per una permanenza nell’Ue (71%), seguito dalla preoccupazione relativa alla possibilità di commerciare con altri Stati (60%) e di potersi spostare liberamente attraverso l’Europa (44%). Nel caso dei Leavers, le percentuali relative a questi fattori si attestano rispettivamente al 30% e sotto al 10% e 5%.
Al contrario, chi ha votato per uscire dall’Ue, ha indicato come prima preoccupazione quella di poter legiferare in autonomia (71%), seguita dall’arrivo degli immigrati e del costo che questi ultimi rappresentano per il sistema di welfare (68%) – viceversa soltanto il 14% dei Remainers hanno menzionato questa preoccupazione.

La questione migratoria nel Regno Unito: opinioni e contraddizioni
È altrettanto interessante notare come, a livello nazionale, le opinioni riguardo alla questione migratoria non siano cambiate molto tra il 2015 e il periodo successivo al voto referendario (Figura 3): la percentuale di persone a favore di una diminuzione dei flussi migratori in entrata è scesa dal 42% (pre-voto) al 37% (post-voto).
D’altra parte, i cittadini britannici continuano ad avere opinioni contrastanti riguardo a quali debbano essere gli obiettivi concreti delle politiche di contenimento degli stessi flussi, in funzione del loro posizionamento lungo lo spettro politico e del comportamento elettorale tenuto durante il referendum (Figura 4).

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