L’asse franco-tedesco e il compromesso al ribasso. L’altra Europa? Una chimera

A parte aver indicato il mese di giugno come data chiave per l’avanzamento del processo di integrazione, il Consiglio europeo di Primavera si è concluso anche con la chiara presa d’atto di una sostanziale differenza di vedute tra i Paesi Ue sui contenuti al centro della trasformazione dell’Unione economica e monetaria, da un lato, e della governance dell’Eurozona, dall’altro.

Nelle ultime settimane, sulle pagine de ilSalto, abbiamo cercato di seguire costantemente lo sviluppo delle negoziazione sul futuro dell’Ue e dell’Eurozona, di fatto avviate nel 2017, in seguito all’elezione di Emmanuel Macron a Presidente della Repubblica francese.

In quest’ottica, in questi primi mesi del 2018, gli eventi chiave sono stati:

  • La pubblicazione di un documento accademico sottoscritto da 14 tra i più influenti economisti franco-tedeschi che delinea un progetto di riforme per rafforzare l’Eurozona (qui una discussione dei contenuti sulle pagine del think tank Bruegel);
  • Le elezioni in Austria, Italia e Ungheria che hanno visto l’affermazione di forze conservatrici, se non euroscettiche;
  • Il comunicato dei Paesi dell’area Nord-Baltica in cui si sono criticate le proposte di riforma del Presidente francese, Emmanuel Macron, sia nel metodo che nel merito;
  • Il Consiglio europeo di Primavera (marzo 2018) che ha indicato giugno 2018 come data potenziale per un accordo di massima su quale debba essere la tabella di marcia per la realizzazione consensuale di un piano di riforme.

A parte aver indicato il mese di giugno come data chiave per l’avanzamento del processo di integrazione, il Consiglio europeo di Primavera si è concluso anche con la chiara presa d’atto di una sostanziale differenza di vedute tra i Paesi Ue sui contenuti al centro della trasformazione dell’Unione economica e monetaria, da un lato, e della governance dell’Eurozona, dall’altro.

Anche per questo, qualche settimana fa abbiamo definito “cacofonia” il dibattito sul futuro dell’Ue: sono semplicemente tante – e reciprocamente conflittuali – le posizioni e visioni in campo.

È bene ribadire che lo “scontro” si snoda tutto intorno alle proposte del Presidente francese che sono state, in parte, componenti fondamentali della campagna elettorale francese del 2017. In buona sostanza, le riforme di Macron includerebbero: la trasformazione del Meccanismo europeo di stabilità (Mes) in un Fondo monetario europeo vincolato al diritto comunitario e che agisca da fondo di garanzia in situazioni di crisi; l’istituzione di un ministro delle Finanze dell’Eurozona; la creazione di un budget per gli investimenti e, più in generale, per la stabilizzazione dell’Eurozona che funga da strumento anticiclico; il completamento dell’Unione bancaria.

Tre nuovi tasselli

Dopo il Consiglio europeo di marzo, questa settimana si sono aggiunti tre tasselli importanti che possono aiutare a continuare l’analisi e cercare di capire dove si andrà a parare. In sequenza:

  • il Presidente Emmanuel Macron, ha parlato al Parlamento europeo rilanciando (in maniera parziale) il proprio piano di riforme dell’Ue;
  • in Germania, Merkel ha cercato di determinare un posizionamento del Governo tedesco (e del suo partito, la Cdu) sul tema “Europa”;
  • Macron e Merkel si sono incontrati a Berlino.

Sebbene la stampa abbia dato ampio spazio al primo evento, sono sicuramente il secondo e il terzo a essere fondamentali per capire lo stato dell’arte e il prosieguo del processo di riforme.

L’azione di Merkel al Bundestag

Dopo una serie di critiche ai piani di Macron da parte del governo tedesco (in particolare, da parte del ministro delle Finanze socialdemocratico, Olaf Scholz), della Csu (l’alleato bavarese di Merkel) e della Cdu stessa, martedi – proprio mentre Macron parlava agli eurodeputati a Strasburgo –  Merkel ha diretto un incontro a porte chiuse, tra i deputati della Cdu e della Csu presso il Bundestag. L’obiettivo? Fare chiarezza tra alleati ed evitare di mandare segnali sbagliati a Parigi. Quali sono stati i contenuti della discussione?

Secondo alcune indiscrezioni riportate da HandelsblattMerkel avrebbe proposto di allargare l’Eurogruppo (oggi composto dai ministri delle Finanze dell’Eurozona) ai rispettivi ministri dell’Economia. Nei piani della Cancelliera, si tratterebbe di creare una sorta di Eurogruppo allargato (la stampa tedesca ha già coniato il termine “Jumbo-Rat” per descrivere la nuova conformazione), il quale dovrebbe garantire un migliore coordinamento delle politiche economiche tra Paesi.

Su Die Welt, Robin Alexander ha inoltre spiegato che Merkel avrebbe confermato l’impostazione à la Schaeuble (ex ministro delle Finanze tedesco) per quanto riguarda la riforma del Mes. Il Meccanismo di stabilità dovrebbe, di conseguenza, rimanere uno strumento che segue una logica intergovernamentale e, quindi, non essere legato al diritto comunitario; tantomeno, finire sotto il controllo della Commissione europea – si tratta di una deviazione importante rispetto ai piani di Macron. Un piccolo passo in avanti (da un punto di vista “francese”) si può riscontrare nel fatto che, agli occhi di Merkel, qualsiasi decisione presa dal Mes su eventuali salvataggi finanziari futuri dovrebbe passare “soltanto” per un voto “non vincolante” dei parlamenti nazionali (in questo caso, del Bundestag). Per intenderci, oggigiorno questo voto rappresenta una vera e propria ghigliottina: molte tranche di finanziamento in favore di Atene sarebbero saltate se il Parlamento tedesco (ma non esclusivamente quest’ultimo) non avesse dato il suo assenso.

Infine, proprio la Cancelliera avrebbe ribadito ai suoi colleghi di partito che non sarà possibile portare avanti le riforme senza una modifica dei trattati europei – si tratta di un cambio di linea politica importante, se si considera le precedenti posizioni di Berlino (lo stesso quadro è confermato in un articolo di Der Spiegel).

In soldoni, Merkel ha delineato un compromesso al ribasso (sempre rispetto alle proposte di Macron) con l’intento di tenere insieme: le aspirazioni della Spd, le critiche dei conservatori e il nocciolo delle riforme dello stesso Presidente francese. Allo stesso tempo, la sfida della Cancelliera è quella di creare un progetto di trasformazione che possa ottenere l’appoggio dell’area Nord-Baltico che si era espressa criticamente qualche settimana fa (vedi sopra, il  comunicato menzionato all’inizio dell’articolo).

In realtà, già mercoledì, proprio la Spd avrebbe parzialmente bocciato il piano di Merkel, soprattutto per quel che riguarda il “Jumbo-Rat. Del resto non è difficile capire il perché. Dopo tanti sforzi per piazzare un proprio rappresentante al ministero delle Finanze dopo l’era Schaeuble, la SPD correrebbe il rischio di veder rientrare la politica europea della Cdu dalla finestra, qualora l’Eurogruppo si dovesse trasformare in un organo allargato anche ai ministri dell’economia.

Ma quanto è realistico che questo compromesso al ribasso si trasformi nei contenuti al centro  della “tabella di marcia” a cui ha fatto riferimento Macron martedì a Strasburgo e menzionata durante il Consiglio europeo di marzo? Molto, se si considera quello che si sono detti il Presidente francese e la Cancelliera ieri a Berlino.

L’incontro Merkel – Macron a Berlino

Nella conferenza stampa di giovedì che ha fatto seguito sia alla visita all’Europarlamento di Macron che alla discussione al Bundestag guidata da Merkel, i leader di Francia e Germania hanno affermato di «aver iniziato uno scambio di vedute» in funzione del Consiglio europeo di giugno. Merkel ha anche ribadito che il 19 giugno le due squadre di governo si incontreranno per discussioni più approfondite.

Non si è trattato di una riedizione dello storico “siamo d’accordo di non essere d’accordo” (“We agree to disagree”) che caratterizzò il primo incontro tra Varoufakis e Schaeuble nel 2015, ma poco ci manca.  Merkel ha voluto sottolineare che al centro del dibattito delle prossime settimane non ci saranno soltanto le questioni istituzionali-economiche, ma anche il rinnovamento della politica di accoglienza dei rifugiati (diritto di asilo) e la politica estera dell’Unione.

Incalzati da Reuters sul punto delle riforme istituzionali, Merkel ha detto: «Siamo d’accordo che l’Eurozona non è salda di fronte a nuove crisi […] ma esistono sia proposte francesi che tedesche». In questo contesto, la Cancelliera ha addirittura menzionato Schaeuble parlando dell’evoluzione del rapporto con il Fmi (Fondo monetario internazionale), prima di ribadire, ancora una volta, che “responsabilizzazione e condivisione dei rischi devono andare di pari passo”. I punti su cui si è detta ottimista? La finalizzazione dell’Unione bancaria e dell’Edis. Merkel ha detto che dobbiamo chiederci perché “le riforme in Spagna, Irlanda e Portogallo abbiano funzionato”.

Macron ha parlato della necessità di condividere «un obiettivo politico comune». Si tratta sì di migliorare la combinazione di “responsabilità e solidarietà”. In questo senso, Macron ha detto che nessuna “unione monetaria può funzionare senza strumenti di convergenza” tra Stati membri, prima di specificare che sono gli elementi di solidarietà a «non funzionare bene» nel Continente.

Rimane quindi il fatto che l’incontro di Berlino non ha minimamente sciolto di nodi concettuali sullo sviluppo dell’Uem e dell’Eurozona. In un certo senso, la Cancelliera e il Presidente si sono nascosti dietro ai temi che uniscono: il rapporto con gli Stati Uniti, la politica estera, il ruolo dell’Ue nel mondo, ecc..

L’altra Europa?

Alla luce della pallida apparizione berlinese di Merkel, è probabile che il piano di Macron subirà aggiustamenti verso gli interessi della Germania e dei Paesi del Nord Europa.

A pesare, oltre alle dinamiche interne ai Paesi (soprattutto in Germania, dove la Csu è sempre più in competizione con l’AfD e i liberali dell’Fdp) c’è l’assenza pressoché totale di governi progressisti nel resto dell’Unione: il Portogallo e la Grecia non sono voci influenti in questa discussione a 27. E nei prossimi 12 mesi non cambierà un granché.

È quindi inevitabile che dalle negoziazioni uscirà un’Europa sì modificata – in fondo, sia Macron che la Spd devono portare a casa qualcosa nei prossimi mesi -, ma in maniera poco tangibile rispetto a chi sogna un’Unione politica con capacità fiscali forti. L’altra Europa, nel breve e medio periodo, rimane una chimera.

(ilSalto, 20.04.2018)

Photo CC Flickr: Annika Haas (EU2017EE) – EU2017EE Estonian Presidency

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