Il futuro dell’Ue? Una cacofonia

Lunedì 6 marzo, tramite un comunicato stampa congiunto, Danimarca, Estonia, Finlandia, Irlanda, Lettonia, Lituania, Olanda e Sveziahanno scritto che qualsivoglia modifica dell’attuale assetto dovrebbe concentrarsi sul “completamento dell’Unione bancaria e sulle riforme strutturali e le politiche fiscali nei singoli Paesi”, in linea “con le regole comunitarie”

I ministri delle finanze di otto nazioni del Nord Europa e dell’area Baltica hanno smorzato l’entusiasmo franco-tedesco per un eventuale processo di riforma europeo volto a modificare i connotati dell’Unione economica e monetaria (Uem).

Lunedì 6 marzo, tramite un comunicato stampa congiunto, Danimarca, Estonia, Finlandia, Irlanda, Lettonia, Lituania, Olanda e Sveziahanno scritto che qualsivoglia modifica dell’attuale assetto dovrebbe concentrarsi sul “completamento dell’Unione bancaria e sulle riforme strutturali e le politiche fiscali nei singoli Paesi”, in linea “con le regole comunitarie”. Tradotto: lasciamo perdere, almeno per il momento, progetti quali l’istituzione di un ministro delle Finanze europeo e lo sviluppo di un budget dell’Eurozona per gli investimenti, entrambi abbozzati dal Presidente francese, Emmanuel Macron, e condivisi parzialmente dalla neonata coalizione GroKo in Germania.

I Paesi di questo gruppo misto Nord-Baltico elencano numerosi punti fermi per il futuro del processo di integrazione.

Più a destra di Merkel

Iniziando dalle questioni di metodo, nel comunicato viene ribadito che qualsiasi piano di riforme relativo all’Uem deve essere “inclusivo”. Anche i Paesi che non fanno parte dell’Eurozona dovrebbero poter partecipare, su base volontaria, alle discussioni sul futuro del processo di integrazione. A prescindere dai temi specifici. Tra le righe, qui si legge, da un lato, una critica a Francia e Germania – i due Paesi hanno a più riprese ribadito che un rilancio del processo di integrazione dipende e passa dall’asse Berlino-Parigi -, dall’altro, una scarsa sintonia con il discorso dell’“integrazione a due velocità”.

Passando al merito delle potenziali riforme, gli 8 Paesi sottolineano che il Patto di stabilità e crescita (Psc) non si discute e che un’ Uem rinforzata passa dagli interventi strutturali a livello nazionale. In secondo luogo, qualsiasi processo di riforma dovrebbe incentrarsi su opzioni che godono di un supporto a livello di opinioni pubbliche nazionali. Letteralmente, la discussione dovrebbe incentrarsi sui “bisogni” (“need to have”, tdr.) e non sui “desideri” (“nice to have”, tdr.). Ovvero: “il completamento dell’Unione bancaria, la trasformazione del Meccanismo europeo di stabilità (Mes) in un Fondo monetario europeo” e il rafforzamento di un’ “agenda di libero scambio”.

Entrando nel dettaglio delle tre aree di riforma, per quanto riguarda l’Unione bancaria, gli elementi chiave (e prioritari) sarebbero quelli già delineati nella Roadmap to Complete the Banking Union del 2016: la definizione di margini di liquidità adeguati per garantire le procedure di bail-in, il completamento di politiche virtuose per gestire i cosiddetti non-performing loans e la minimizzazione degli aiuti di Stato. Che fine ha fatto lo schema di assicurazione europeo per i depositi (Edis)? I ragionamenti tecnici “dovrebbero essere portati avanti”, mentre le “discussioni politiche” possono partire soltanto a fronte di un progresso sul fronte della “riduzione del rischio”. Il tutto dovrebbe poi procedere di pari passo con il rafforzamento dell’Unione dei capitali. Punto numero due: Meccanismo europeo di stabilità. Il Mes dovrebbe godere di maggiore responsabilità per lo sviluppo e il monitoraggio dei programmi di assistenza finanziaria-fiscale di cui beneficiano Paesi in stato di crisi. Il processo decisionale interno all’istituto dovrebbe inoltre rimanere “intergovernativo” e basato sulle attuali regole di voto. Appare netta quindi l’opposizione all’idea di ancorare il Mes a un procedimento di supervisione (oltre che di democratizzazione e politicizzazione) parlamentare. In generale, tra le righe (e con un po’ di malizia), si può leggere la predilezione, da parte dei Paesi firmatari, per un ruolo sempre meno incisivo della Commissione europea a favore del Mes.

Infine, i ministri delle finanze sottolineano la necessità di sviluppare il prossimo Piano di finanziamento pluriennale europeo (Qfp), combinando meglio l’allocazione delle risorse all’implementazione di riforme strutturali. Queste ultime avrebbero dimostrato – nel corso e dopo la crisi –  la loro “efficacia”.

Cosa ci dice tutto ciò?

Il comunicato aggiunge nuovi elementi al dibattito sul processo di di riforme europeo che ha preso piede dopo le elezioni francesi dell’anno scorso. Peccato però che, a questo punto e metaforicamente parlando, la discussione somigli molto più a una “cacofonia” (per farsi un’idea della molteplicità e diversità delle posizioni in campo, ecco una carrellata di contenuti pubblicati negli ultimi giorni da varie testate internazionali: #1, #2, #3, #4, #5).

A livello di principio, Danimarca & co. sembrerebbero in linea con la visione della CDU tedesca. Ma quest’ultima ha aperto a un processo di riforma più ampio per andare incontro a Macron, nel contesto della neonata GroKo. Ne consegue, che la posizione qui delineata è lontana da quella di Parigi e, naturalmente, da quella del Sud Europa (soprattutto, Portogallo e Grecia). Inoltre, è da notare la presa di distanza olandese nei confronti della Germania.

Semplificando (di molto) il quadro politico continentale, si intravede, in funzione dei piani futuri di riforma, la costituzione di alcuni blocchi distinti di Paesi caratterizzati da interessi diversi:

  • Il blocco Nord-Baltico;
  • L’asse Berlino-Parigi che comprende anche Lussemburgo e Belgio;
  • Il gruppo del Sud: Portogallo, Grecia e Spagna;
  • Il blocco Visegrad: Polonia, Ungheria, Repubblica Ceca e Slovacchia;
  • Gli “aspiranti Schengen”, Bulgaria e Romania;

E tutti gli altri? Per il momento fluttuano tra questi gruppi in attesa di collocarsi. Considerando il voto di domenica, dall’Italia ci si potrebbe aspettare un riposizionamento da qualche parte, tra Visegrad e il gruppo del Sud. L’Austria, al contrario, si trova tra Visegrad e il blocco Nord-Baltico.

Ma a questo punto, la domanda cruciale diventa: per il futuro dell’Unione e dell’Eurozona, che tipo di compromesso potrà nascere da una tale frammentazione politica?

(ilSalto, 09.03.2018)

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