I conti e il segreto di Angela (per non spaventare il Partito)

I giochi tedeschi sull’Europa sono dunque in pieno svolgimento. Il dialogo fra Parigi e Berlino certamente continuerà e resterà cruciale. Ma i destini della UE sembrano oggi appesi alle dinamiche negoziali e agli equilibri interni che si creeranno una volta instaurata la grande coalizione rosso-nera.

Il 26 gennaio scorso, annunciando l’inizio ufficiale dei negoziati per la nascita di una nuova Grosse Koalition, Martin Schulz (SPD) ha affermato che l’Ue ha bisogno di una Germania “pro-Europa”. Il ministro degli esteri Sigmar Gabriel (SPD) ha a sua volta ribadito il collegamento fra i progetti “Europa” e “GroKo”. Nei fatti, tuttavia, la trattativa in corso con la CDU-CSU si è incentrata soprattutto su temi nazionali, tanto che alcuni si chiedono se Schulz non agiti la bandiera blu con le stelle gialle soltanto per motivi tattici. Come se il rilancio del processo di integrazione (“Neuer Aufbruch”) sia  (stato) usato dal  Segretario della SPD – in caduta libera negli indici di gradimento – come “carota” per far digerire al partito una scelta controversa: quella di allearsi nuovamente con Merkel.

La bozza di accordo programmatico siglata dai due partiti non si dilunga molto sui dettagli Spesso però in politica il non detto conta più delle parole. La vaghezza degli impegni può celare un disegno condiviso fra i due leader:  tenersi le mani libere per promuovere, a governo formato, una agenda ambiziosa di riforme “europeiste”. Questo è ciò che pensa, ad esempio, una grande esperta di politica europea, Jana Puglierin (capo degli studi UE presso la prestigiosa DGAP, Deutsche Gesellschaft fur Auswärtige Politik). Leggendo fra le righe dell’accordo programmatico GroKo, la studiosa intravede i margini per una vera e propria svolta nella linea tedesca. I segnali sarebbero contenuti nella parte conclusiva del testo, ove si dice che “attraverso un bilancio per gli investimenti dell’Eurozona […] si potrebbero mettere a disposizione risorse per la stabilizzazione macroeconomica e la convergenza sociale , nonché per sostenere le riforme strutturali”. Secondo Puglierin, se Berlino davvero muovesse in questa direzione il processo di integrazione potrebbe fare un salto di qualità.

Sinora il principale ostacolo è sempre stato proprio il governo tedesco. Anticipandone le tradizionali resistenze, anche i tecnici più qualificati hanno smesso di fare proposte ambiziose. Un documento messo a punto da un gruppo internazionale di economisti – molti tedeschi- presso il Center for Economic Policy Research ( Policy Insight 91) ha recentemente affrontato la questione di un possibile budget dell’ Eurozona – opzione cara al governo francese. Il documento riconosce la desiderabilità di questa innovazione. Ma aggiunge subito che , se fosse introdotto, un simile strumento dovrebbe rispondere ad un parlamento adeguatamente rafforzato. Questo passo potrebbe però essere effettuato solo tramite una scelta “politica”, con profonde implicazioni.  Come dire: noi tecnici non ci prendiamo responsabilità che non ci competono e che sono più grandi di  noi. Sono i politici a dover dare luce verde e creare le condizione per l’Unione politica.

E’ possibile, come pensano gli studiosi della DGAP, che il riferimento esplicito ad un fondo di stabilizzazione da parte di Schulz e Merkel  voglia aprire un varco per questo scenario? E che i silenzi successivi siano giustificati dal desiderio di non provocare la reazione degli alleati più conservatori e non complicare la nascita del governo? E’ possibile. La CDU è inquieta. La settimana scorsa (PER CHI LEGGERA’ LUNEDI) il Consiglio economico interno al partito della Cancelliera ha inviato una lettera dai toni accessi ai propri membri che si occupano di UE al tavolo dei negoziati. Il Consiglio si è detto preoccupato della virata: “La [CDU] non può continuare a seguire la SPD nella definizione della politica europea, visto che, sotto al termine ‘pro-Europa’, si nasconde soltanto una maggiore redistribuzione a favore dei Paesi in crisi […] Da chi, se non dalla CDU-CSU, dovrebbe arrivare una urgente e necessaria contro-proposta al piano di riforma suggerito da Macron e Juncker?”.

I giochi tedeschi sull’Europa sono dunque in pieno svolgimento. Il dialogo fra Parigi e Berlino certamente continuerà e resterà cruciale. Ma i destini della UE sembrano oggi appesi alle dinamiche negoziali e agli equilibri interni che si creeranno una volta instaurata la grande coalizione rosso-nera. E’ poco probabile che il programma in via di definizione entri nei dettagli. Sappiamo che Merkel ha interesse a liberarsi dal condizionamento ingombrante di Schäuble e Weidman e che Schulz ha dal canto suo interesse a tener fermo il Neuer Aufbruch non solo per il suo pedegree filo-europeista ma anche per controllare il suo partito e lanciare un segnale “progressista” al proprio elettorato. Seppure indebolito, il fronte conservatore che fa capo a Schauble è ancora vivo e vegeto.

A parte la Francia, nei prossimi mesi gli altri governi UE e i loro elettorati avranno pochi margini di manovra per incidere sull’agenda UE. Possono naturalmente peggiorare la propria posizione decidendo di non usarli, danneggiandosi da soli. Il rischio è  alto soprattutto per l’Italia, che andrà a votare fra un mese e si ritrova con alcuni leader e programmi a dire poco ambigui sui temi europei, quando non apertamente euroscettici.

(Corriere della Sera – L’Economia, 05.02.2018)

Photo CC Flickr: European Parliament

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