Nigel Farage vuole un secondo referendum sulla Brexit, e non è un paradosso

Nella riapertura di una questione dicotomica sulla “Brexit” (“sì o no”, “dentro o fuori”), Farage intravede la possibilità di spaccare definitivamente sia il partito conservatore che il Labour, e ambire a Downing Street.

Nella riapertura di una questione dicotomica sulla “Brexit” (“sì o no”, “dentro o fuori”), Farage intravede la possibilità di spaccare definitivamente sia il partito conservatore che il Labour, e ambire a Downing Street.

Circa due settimana fa, Nigel Farage, l’ex leader del Partito per l’indipendenza del Regno Unito (UKIP), ha affermato che un secondo referendum sulla Brexitsarebbe cosa buona e giusta. Secondo Farage, il voto sarebbe utile per “sconfessare definitivamente” i cosiddetti remainers, ovvero coloro che, da due anni a questa parte, si battono per una permanenza nell’Unione europea.

Sebbene l’affermazione di Farage punti nella direzione di una conferma della Brexit, è altrettanto vero che, oggigiorno, a giudicare dai sondaggi, una seconda consultazione popolare non darebbe lo stesso risultato del 23 giugno 2016.

Come motivare allora le parole di Nigel? In fondo, per un anno e mezzo, l’idea di un “secondo referendum” è stato un tabù per il campo del leavers (simmetricamente ai remainers, si tratta di coloro che si spendono, da sempre, per l’abbandono dell’Ue). Ne derivano due ipotesi. La prima: Farage pensa di poter vincere ancora una volta un referendum sulla Brexit. La seconda: Farage si è accorto che, senza “una Brexit per cui lottare,” non ha più un lavoro. Steve Bell delGuardian ha raffigurato egregiamente questa seconda alternativa. Il ragionamento, in un certo senso, è semplice: immaginate una Padania indipendente o, per dire, uno Star Wars senza Sith. Che ragione avrebbero di esistere la Lega Nord e i Jedi?

Surrealismo pop?

Sarebbe legittimo tacciare tutto ciò di surrealismo. Ma è proprio a questo punto che entra in scena l’entourage “comunitario.” In seguito alle parole di Farage, sia il Presidente della Commissione europea che del Consiglio, Jean Claude Juncker e Donald Tusk hanno detto che “un cambio di idea da parte di Londra” sarebbe più che benvenuto. Come dire: un secondo referendum? Perché no?

Ma, a gettare ghiaccio sulla partita, ci hanno pensato sia Theresa May, la Prima ministra e leader dei Conservatori, nonché Jeremy Corbyn, guida del Labour. Entrambi hanno escluso un secondo voto per riportare il Regno Unito nell’Ue. Sembrerebbe un grande paradosso, e invece no. Perché?

In realtà, l’affondo di Farage è meno “egoistico” e più serio di quanto non sembri. Ancora una volta, il deputato britannico più denigrato d’Europa, sembra leggere in anticipo le tendenze e la situazione del sistema politico moderno “più antico” del Vecchio continente.

Le ipotesi “uno” e “due” di cui sopra si fondono così in un unico grande “azzardo,” ovvero:

  • organizzare un secondo referendum;
  • vincerlo;
  • ottenere un lavoro migliore del precedente.

Quella di Nigel è un’ipoteca su Downing Street.

Le fratture del sistema britannico: dai tories …

Non è un segreto che i tories siano in caduta libera da quando si sono imbarcati sul vascello Brexit.

Lo hanno dimostrato le elezioni lampo dello scorso giugno, in occasione delle quali, i Conservatori hanno perso la propria maggioranza nella Camera bassa del Parlamento. Theresa May è stata definita da alcuni come il leader più debole di cui la storia politica britannica abbia memoria.

In altri termini, l’attuale Governo non sembra in grado di gestire la transizione post-referendum (è un’opinione alimentata anche dall’incredibile quantità di articoli sul tema pubblicati dalla stampa di Bruxelles nel corso dell’ultimo anno e mezzo).

Fin dal giugno 2016 poi, l’Esecutivo britannico è spaccato tra coloro che vorrebbero una Brexit “dura” — un’uscita dall’Ue senza “se e senza ma,” con tanto di esclusione di un accordo sulla permanenza del Regno Unito nell’Unione doganale europea — e coloro che, invece, preferirebbero addirittura restare all’interno del Mercato unico — una condizione che, però, implicherebbe la libera circolazione di cittadini comunitari nei territori UK e che, quindi, ignorerebbe il “messaggio” e la “volontà” politica scaturita dal referendum stesso.

A ben vedere, la lite in casa Downing Street, in fondo, non è altro che il riflesso di una divisione interna al Partito conservatore.

Secondo Michael Hartmann, un noto sociologo delle élite, le differenti posizioni sulla Brexit in seno ai tories, dipendono, a loro volta, dall’internazionalizzazione della classe dirigente britannica, instauratasi dopo Thatcher, nel corso degli ultimi 30 anni: c’è chi è affezionato al mito della globalizzazione (i conservatori anti-Brexit legati alla City di Londra) e chi a un Regno Unito “classico” (i “vecchi” industriali pro-Brexit della provincia).

… al Labour

Ma la spaccatura sulla Brexit non attraversa soltanto i Conservatori. Vale quindi la pena ricordare le giravolte del Labour sotto Corbyn.

Il leader di Chippenham è dapprima passato da una storica posizione critica nei confronti di Bruxelles all’endorsement della campagna anti-Brexit nel corso del referendum del 2016. E, successivamente al voto, da una campagna a favore di una Brexit morbida (con conseguente permanenza nel Mercato unico) ad una sorta di minimalismo e snobismo nei confronti dell’Ue, che giustificherebbe soltanto la permanenza nell’Unione doganale (e forse neanche quella).

L’atteggiamento di Corbyn è quello di un politico che vuole tenere insieme due componenti della base del Partito. La prima, giovane ed europeista, si batte in primis per diritti civili e cosmopolitismo; la seconda, meno identificabile in termini generazionali e più “britannica,” pone la lotta di classe come obiettivo primario.

Il leader del Labour si è accorto che, per il momento, mettere l’accento sulle “questioni sociali” — tra cui la crisi dello Stato sanitario nazionale, gli effetti devastanti delle privatizzazioni, i costi esorbitanti dell’educazione universitaria, il mercato immobiliare fuori controllo — permette di tenere insieme le due componenti. E, forse, di guadagnare addirittura voti della destra — un recente sondaggio indica che gli elettori dei tories vedono come priorità le questioni sociali.

In questo senso, parlare di Brexit è un rischio totale che potrebbe spaccare di nuovo i laburisti.

Riaprire le ferite

È proprio questa, probabilmente, l’analisi alla base della mossa di Farage, il quale intravede, nella riapertura di una questione dicotomica sulla “Brexit” (“sì o no”, “dentro o fuori”) la possibilità di spaccare definitivamente sia il partito conservatore che il Labour e ambire, quindi, a Downing Street.

In un recente articolo pubblicato su Politico, viene messo l’accento sulle manovre di Farage e Arron Banks, ex-finanziatore dello UKIP, per lanciare un nuovo movimento che sostituisca il Partito indipendentista e che possa mettere le mani sul Governo per implementare una politica isolazionista e di destra radicale nel Regno Unito.

A tal fine è innanzitutto necessario distruggere lo UKIP stesso e darsi una nuova immagine: un risultato in pratica già ottenuto destituendo, uno dopo l’altro, come marionette, gli ultimi tre leader del Partito e tagliando in finanziamenti privati al movimento.

In secondo luogo, è necessario aprire una nuova battaglia campale che riesca a spaccare sia il Labour di Corbyn che i Tories. Il referendum sulla Brexit del 2016ha dimostrato come farlo. Perché non raddoppiare?

(The Submarine, 24.01.2018)

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