La questione tedesca

I vantaggi competitivi, il surplus commerciale, il “drenaggio” di capitale umano dal Sud: la “questione tedesca” rimane uno dei dibatti centrali in Europa. Ma ci sono anche le discussioni sulla Brexit e sull’occupazione. Il filo rosso de ilSalto attraverso i post, gli editoriali e gli articoli di opinione delle testate europee e dei think tank.

I vantaggi competitivi, il surplus commerciale, il “drenaggio” di capitale umano dal Sud: la “questione tedesca” rimane uno dei dibatti centrali in Europa. Ma ci sono anche le discussioni sulla Brexit e sull’occupazione. Il filo rosso de ilSalto attraverso i post, gli editoriali e gli articoli di opinione delle testate europee e dei think tank.

La “questione tedesca” in Europa

In un’intervista per Iris, l’economista del Centre for European Reform (Cer), Christian Odenahl, spiega la logica delle così dette riforme tedesche “Hartz” di inizio secolo che confluirono nel piano del governo Schröder, Agenda 2010.

Secondo Odenahl, il contenimento dell’inflazione e dei costi unitari del lavoro seguiti alla riforma, spiegano il vantaggio competitivo sviluppato da Berlino in Europa. Odenahl definisce le riforme di Schröder di allora “una variante del mercantilismo in un contesto di unione monetaria”.

La domanda che molti si pongono ora è: Emmanuel Macron, in Francia, seguirà la strada tracciata dal governo tedesco quindici anni fa?

Secondo Odenahl, Macron sa di non poter utilizzare le stesse ricette, perché “richiederebbero una riduzione del costo del lavoro del 10%”: sarebbe troppo anche per il rampante Presidente francese. Piuttosto, è probabile che Macron tenti  di “instaurare un braccio di ferro con Merkel” mettendo sul piatto della bilancia le riforme fatte in casa. Cosa pretenderà in cambio? Un impegno tedesco in materia di investimenti a livello europeo (per alcuni analisti, il rilancio europeo passerà invece per le spese militari. Ne abbiamo scritto qui)

Il surplus commerciale: a torto …

Sulle pagine di Social Europe, Simon Wren Lewis afferma, senza mezzi termini, che la Germania deve aumentare il livello interno dei salari per ridurre il proprio surplus commerciale. Quest’ultimo si attesta ormai su quote record: 8% in rapporto al pil. Lewis cita anche il Fondo monetario internazionale (Fmi): “Un rapporto surplus/Pil tra il 2.5 e il 5% rappresenta un obiettivo equilibrato nel medio periodo”.

Esiste un’alternativa a una crescita salariale tedesca? Sì e sarebbe tutta basata su un ulteriore contenimento dei costi del lavoro nel resto dell’Europa. Ma un’inflazione ai minimi storici “non permetterebbe una manovra del genere”. Tanto meno, le indubbie resistenze del mondo del lavoro dopo anni di politiche del risparmio. Secondo Lewis, Berlino dovrebbe quindi stimolare la propria domanda interna e “fare il possibile per correggere un problema che la Germania stessa ha causato”.

… o a ragione

Una visione radicalmente diversa è quella esposta dal Direttore dell’Istituto per la ricerca economica di Monaco (Ifo), Clemens Fuest, e dal suo predecessore, Hans Werner Sinn, sulle pagine di Project Syndicate (#2).

Secondo Fuest, una parte dell’avanzo della bilancia commerciale tedesca si spiega con la tendenza al risparmio dei cittadini tedeschi. Questi ultimi sono semplicemente “prudenti” e adottano una prospettiva di lungo periodo. Secondo Fuest, “la Germania ha di fronte a sé lo scenario di una crisi fiscale, in quanto la popolazione sta invecchiando. [Allo stesso tempo] diminuisce la forza lavoro. [Il Paese] si deve preparare a un calo nei contributi pensionistici, a fronte di un aumento dei costi legati alla previdenza […]. Al momento ha quindi senso investire i propri risparmi all’estero perché l’invecchiamento della popolazione tedesca riduce il ritorno economico degli investimenti in patria”.

Nonostante ciò, secondo Fuest, Merkel potrebbe decidere di mettere mano alle politiche economiche nazionali. Perché? Le ragioni sono “politiche, piuttosto che economiche”. Innanzitutto, potrebbero pesare “gli interessi di cooperazione internazionale in materia di immigrazione e sicurezza energetica”. Soprattutto, nel momento di un confronto con altre potenze. In secondo luogo, l’esasperazione “del rapporto debitori-creditori potrebbe portare a situazioni di conflitto” (vedi caso Grecia nel 2015). Infine, la Procedura di disequilibrio macroeconomico (“Macroeconomic Imbalance Procedure”), prevista all’interno del sistema di governance europea del Semestre europeo, “costringe” i Paesi membri con un surplus della bilancia commerciale superiore al 6% ad aggiustare il tiro. Se Berlino dovesse continuare a far finta di niente, “sarebbe difficile pretendere dagli altri Paesi Ue di rispettare le regole [sul deficit]”.

Libera circolazione o esercito di riserva?

Se le scelte dei cittadini tedeschi in materia di risparmio sono un segno di lungimiranza, allora è possibile leggere in maniera diversa anche la così detta “fuga dei cervelli” e il dibattito sulla crisi migratoria in corso in Europa.

In una breve analisi a cura di Edith Pichler, pubblicata dall’istituto Neodemos di Firenze, vengono rivelate le caratteristiche dell’impiego della forza lavoro italiana migrata all’estero. Secondo Pichler “la manodopera italiana è spesso occupata in settori dove non è richiesta alcuna qualifica e dove, non di rado, è impiegata sotto la qualifica” (per esempio, nei call center o nel settore della ristorazione). Vale quindi la pena chiedersi, scrive Pichler, se “questi giovani lavoratori europei mobili non svolgano, in realtà, la funzione di un esercito di riserva” per l’economia tedesca.

In parte, l’analisi di Pichler fa il paio con quella di John Hurley su Social Europe. Hurley illustra come, in Europa, il recupero di posti lavoro a dieci anni dallo scoppio della crisi finanziaria, sia caratterizzato da tre elementi: in primo luogo, si tratta soprattutto di occupazione a basso o medio reddito; in secondo luogo, la crescita dei posti lavoro, quando riguarda il settore manifatturiero, si manifesta in Europa centrale e orientale; infine, sono soprattutto le donne a guadagnare dalla ripresa: gli uomini sono associati di più a forme di lavoro part-time e precarie.

Del Brexit e del romanticismo in Europa

In merito all’argomento “migratorio” sollevato da Pichler, emerge quindi una domanda cruciale: gli interessi nazionali sono neutrali rispetto ai movimenti di lavoratori attraverso l’Europa, e viceversa? E ancora: esistono altri parametri da considerare quando viene affermata l’idea romantica della libera circolazione nell’Unione europea?

Proprio riguardo al “romanticismo dell’idea di Europa”, scrive Sean O’Grady sulle pagine del The Independent, in relazione al Brexit: “I britannici amano i propri vicini europei – e viceversa. [L’Europa] è dove ci piace passare le vacanze e siamo abituati [ad avere] colleghi e vicini europei […]. Allo stesso tempo i danesi, i ciechi o i tedeschi, non guardano a Bruxelles per prendere decisioni [prettamente] politiche. Lo stato nazione rimane un osso duro ed è un peccato che l’attrattiva dell’alternativa (leggi Unione europea, ndr.) non sia mai stata chiarita del tutto. Ma, dato il contesto, il Regno Unito deve mettere i propri interessi davanti a tutto, senza troppi sentimentalismi”.

(ilSalto, 24.07.2017)

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